Wednesday, October 26, 2016


Otto, the self-driving semi-trailer company acquired by Uber, has made its first commercial delivery. Meanwhile Uber is launching its software product UberFreight, which seeks to match cargo with trucks and drivers (just as regular Uber matches drivers and fares).

I don't know if these particular efforts will be successful. Uber has the resources to deliver here, but they might be beaten by other companies. Nevertheless, these are signals of the world that is slowly emerging and I'm still trying to wrap my head around it all.

Consider also-
That's just a taste, the trend is pretty clear. Every form of vehicle is being converted to self-driving variants. Not just Google's car, but planes, ships, and cars, and new categories (such as that little grocery delivery bot, as well as small flying drones) are emerging too. And trains will too, I'm sure. Further, the regulatory and liability hurdles that are faced by UAVs (by which I mean everything from an unmanned autonomous 5lb drone to an unmanned autonomous ultra-large container vessel) with human passengers are much lessened for freight vehicles, so they will probably emerge into commercial applicability first. Commercial operators also have fewer emotional connections with their operations, so they won't hold onto human-operated vehicles out of nostalgia. As soon the cost-benefit numbers are there the transition will be swift.

It's hard to overstate how huge this is. Freight shipping defines the global economy. Anything that lowers the costs of shipping, reduces time, and/or increases volume will have knock-on effects throughout the economy as markets expand in scope and local specialization deepens. The Roman Empire was built on its roads and its control of the Mediterranean. The British Empire was built on its control of the oceans, and consequent trade via tall ship (and later steam ship) between Europe, the New World, and Asia. Container shipping is an ongoing revolution as container ships get ever larger. These changes were all inflection points in the integration of the global economy, and UAVs are going to be another one.

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